Escalation Triggers: What NOT To Do

Authoritarian governments often deliberately provoke violence to justify crackdowns. Every action you take should be evaluated against one question: Does this give authorities a pretext for escalation?

Why This Document Matters

Understanding how authoritarian governments manufacture pretexts for crackdowns is essential for anyone engaged in civic resistance. Your discipline protects not just you, but everyone in your movement.

How Authoritarian Governments Manufacture Pretexts

"While healthy democratic actors always eschew civil violence, autocrats either deliberately look the other way or even intentionally inflame politically useful violence. Such outbreaks can offer political cover for restrictions on civil liberties or the expansion of coercive security measures."

— The Authoritarian Playbook

Specific Tactics Governments Use

1. Manufacturing Emergencies

  • - Deploying military or federal forces in response to minor incidents
  • - Declaring states of emergency to expand executive power
  • - Using inflammatory language to escalate tensions ("violent mobs," "insurrectionists")

2. Provoking Violence Through Aggressive Enforcement

  • - Militarized responses to peaceful protests
  • - Use of tear gas, flash bangs, and physical force against non-threatening crowds
  • - Hoping protesters will fight back, creating footage for propaganda

3. Deploying Agent Provocateurs

  • - Individuals planted to encourage violence within movements
  • - Designed to give authorities legal grounds for repression
  • - Goal: Turn public opinion against the movement

4. Dehumanizing Target Groups

  • - Creating "enemy" narratives about specific populations
  • - Inflaming public fear to justify harsh measures
  • - Using media to spread disinformation

Historical Examples

Country Year Tactic Used Outcome
Turkey 2016 Manufactured coup attempt Justified mass arrests, dismantled democratic institutions
Nicaragua 2018 Used "shock force" gangs against protesters Protesters who fought back faced severe legal consequences
Tunisia 2023 Scapegoated migrants for social problems Sparked violence, justified authoritarian expansion

Agent Provocateurs: Identification and Counter-Tactics

"Agents provocateurs are individuals planted among activists to masquerade as protesters, but are actually paid to coax movements into using violence."

— Waging Nonviolence

Why Governments Use Them

"The powerholders that hire agents provocateurs know that undermining a movement's nonviolent discipline makes movements easier to defeat. Low-level movement violence is in the powerholders' interest."

Red Flags: How to Identify Potential Provocateurs

Warning Sign Why It Matters
Advocating for "low-level violence" This is their primary tactic
Denouncing nonviolent activists as "not radical enough" Goal is to split the movement
Glib, charismatic strangers appearing suddenly Earned trust should take time
Pushing inexperienced people toward illegal acts Classic entrapment setup
Dressed differently but trying too hard to fit in May wear police boots, similar clothing
Working in pairs or small teams They often operate together for security
No verifiable history in the movement Ask around — does anyone know them?
Proposing actions that would provide great footage for authorities Think: what would the evening news show?

Counter-Tactics That Work

1

The "Sit Down" Strategy (Serbia 2020)

When violent clashes begin, everyone immediately sits down. Provocateurs become easily identifiable as they remain standing and aggressive.

2

Surround and Question

"If you think you have an agent provocateur, physically surround the offenders such that they cannot escape the necessary questioning: who are you, where are you from, who do you represent — and as much in-depth probing as possible."

3

Affinity Groups

Organize in small groups of people who know and trust each other. Strangers cannot easily infiltrate tight-knit groups.

4

Training in Advance

Conduct nonviolence training before any action. Everyone should know the plan and the discipline required.

5

Don't Always Expose Them

"Don't always expose agent provocateurs, because they may send replacements who you don't know. The agent provocateur that you know is better than the one you don't know."

Behaviors That Give Authorities a Pretext

NEVER Do These Things

Every violent act by a protester dominates media coverage, shifts public sympathy away from the movement, provides legal justification for mass arrests, gives authorities footage for propaganda, and potentially triggers escalation that could become deadly.

Physical Actions to Avoid

  • - Never throw anything — even water bottles, even in self-defense
  • - Never push, shove, or physically confront officers
  • - Never damage property — broken windows become the entire news story
  • - Never carry weapons of any kind — including items that could be construed as weapons
  • - Never wear masks with aggressive imagery — it feeds the "violent mob" narrative
  • - Never run toward officers or enforcement personnel
  • - Never attempt to physically stop an arrest in progress

Verbal Actions to Avoid

  • - Never make threats — even vague ones, even in frustration
  • - Never use violent rhetoric — no "fight," "war," "destroy," "burn it down" language
  • - Never call for harm to specific individuals
  • - Never engage in mob chanting that could be construed as threatening

Social Media Actions to Avoid

  • - Never post threats or violent fantasies — they are monitored and will be used against the movement
  • - Never share calls to bring weapons
  • - Never share plans for illegal activities
  • - Never post inflammatory content that could be screenshotted and used as propaganda
  • - Never "joke" about violence — context is lost in screenshots

Organizational Actions to Avoid

  • - Never associate with individuals or groups advocating violence
  • - Never allow armed individuals at peaceful events
  • - Never let unvetted strangers take leadership roles quickly
  • - Never announce plans publicly that authorities could use to prepare provocations
"Opponents are generally better equipped to repress violent action than nonviolent action, and so will often attempt to provoke a nonviolent movement to violence."

— Gene Sharp, The Dynamics of Nonviolent Action

How to De-Escalate Tense Situations

When Facing Aggressive Officers

1 Keep your hands visible at all times
2 Speak calmly and clearly — don't shout
3 State your intentions — "We are here peacefully"
4 Create space — step back, don't crowd
5 Avoid direct eye contact that could be perceived as challenging
6 If ordered to disperse, comply slowly and calmly
7 Document everything, but don't make it confrontational

When Protesters Around You Become Agitated

1 Speak to individuals directly, calmly — "Let's stay peaceful"
2 Remind them of the stakes — "They want us to do this"
3 Create physical separation — move agitated individuals away from the front
4 Start a sit-in — getting people to sit breaks escalation momentum
5 Begin chanting something unifying and calm
6 If someone is throwing things, other protesters should visibly distance themselves

When Violence Breaks Out Nearby

  • - Move away from the violence immediately
  • - Do not film violence up close — you could become part of it
  • - Help others move away calmly
  • - Do not chase or confront violent actors
  • - If sitting, stay seated — this clearly separates you from violence

Phrases to Use

Situation What to Say
Calming agitated protesters "They're filming. Don't give them what they want."
To someone about to throw something "That's exactly what they want. Put it down."
To the crowd when tensions rise "Sit down everyone! Let's sit!"
To officers "We are peaceful. We are not a threat."
When someone suggests violence "That helps them, not us. Let's stay smart."

What Costs Movements Their Moral Authority

Loss Through Violence

Even single incidents of protester violence can define an entire movement in public memory. Property destruction particularly alienates potential supporters who might otherwise agree with the cause.

Loss Through Association

Movements that don't clearly distance themselves from violent factions or extremist rhetoric lose credibility with the broader public.

Loss Through Poor Messaging

Demands that seem unreasonable, rhetoric that demonizes opponents, or failure to articulate clear goals can erode support.

How to Maintain Moral Authority

  • Immediately and publicly condemn any violence by supposed supporters
  • Have clear, reasonable demands that the public can understand
  • Show humanizing images — families, elderly, children participating peacefully
  • Invite faith leaders, veterans, and respected community figures to visible roles
  • Document and publicize government overreach — let them be the aggressors
  • Tell personal stories — humanize those affected
  • Maintain impeccable conduct even when provoked
"The strategic purpose of disciplined protest is to attract growing support for the movement and avoid acts that the public may see as violent and repulsive."

— War Prevention Initiative

Legal Lines Not to Cross

Federal Crimes to Avoid

Action Legal Risk
Assaulting a federal officer Up to 20 years in prison
Destruction of federal property Up to 10 years
Conspiracy to commit violence Even planning can be prosecuted
Inciting a riot Federal crime if crosses state lines
Interfering with an arrest Can result in arrest and charges
Threats against officials Federal crime, actively prosecuted

Actions That Are Protected

  • Peaceful assembly
  • Chanting slogans (non-threatening)
  • Carrying signs
  • Recording officers in public (know your state laws)
  • Refusing to answer questions (beyond identifying information if required)
  • Observing from a distance
  • Providing legal support information to those being arrested

If Arrested

1 Do not resist — even passively, as it can add charges
2 State clearly: "I am exercising my right to remain silent"
3 Request an attorney immediately
4 Do not sign anything without an attorney
5 Memorize a legal support hotline before any action
6 Have emergency contacts who know where you are

Meeting Emotional Needs Without Violence

"Anger and hatred are natural in response to atrocities, but it is essential to avoid causing physical harm, to maintain a nonviolent intention and commitment despite increasing government provocation."

— Waging Nonviolence

Understanding the Impulse

Movement leaders should not depend solely on rational arguments to convince activists of the requirement for nonviolence. They should also understand — and identify actions that fulfill — the emotional needs of their fellow activists.

Satisfying Actions That Maintain Discipline

Instead of This Do This
Throwing objects Organize a massive die-in that blocks streets
Confronting officers Human chains and linking arms
Destroying property Creative art installations
Violent chants Songs and music that build solidarity
Individual outbursts Coordinated, dramatic symbolic actions
Rage posting online Organizing real-world actions

Immediate Tension Release

  • - Deep breathing exercises practiced as a group
  • - Call-and-response chanting that redirects energy
  • - Singing together
  • - Artistic expression (chalk, banners, projections)
  • - Documentation and witness — feeling like you're doing something

Summary Checklists

Before Any Action

  • Is everyone trained in nonviolent discipline?
  • Does everyone know the legal support hotline?
  • Have we vetted participants for provocateurs?
  • Is our messaging clear and reasonable?
  • Have we designated de-escalation leaders?
  • Do we have a plan for if things get tense?
  • Have we removed anyone advocating violence?

During Any Action

  • Are we maintaining nonviolent discipline?
  • Are we documenting (from safe distance)?
  • Are agitated individuals being calmed or moved?
  • Are we keeping hands visible?
  • Are we ready to sit if violence starts?
  • Are we clearly distancing from any violence?

After Any Action

  • Have we publicly condemned any violence?
  • Have we provided legal support to those arrested?
  • Have we documented what happened?
  • Have we debriefed about what worked and what didn't?
  • Have we identified any provocateurs for future awareness?
  • Have we taken care of participants' emotional needs?

Remember: Every action should be evaluated against one question: Does this help or hurt the cause?

Violence always hurts it.

Key Sources

Peaceful Assembly

Your rights to protest and how to exercise them safely

Know Your Rights

Constitutional protections during encounters with authorities